100th Post - Prediction Time

I've been wondering how to commemorate this, my 100th post since I started blogging in August. In the end I decided to try my luck at some predictions. This being a mainly political blog it may take quite some time for any of them to be put to the test, but it's always interesting to be able to look back at what you thought might happen. In my 200th post (in early April, on current form) I'll have a look at those where there is a definite result and see how I feel about those that haven't yet been tested.

So, in no particular order, the first Womble On Tour Predictions List
Liberal Democrat Leadership winner (result declared 17/12/2007): Clegg
Next minister to leave the Cabinet: Purnell
Share of vote at English local elections in May 2008 (01/05/07): Con 38 Lab 31 LD 24 Others 7
Next Mayor of London (20/08/08): Johnson
Timing of next General Election: Autumn 2009
Party Leaders going into the next General Election: Brown, Cameron, Clegg
Winner of next General Election: Labour - majority of 20
US Presidential Election (Nov 08): Clinton
Bank of England Base Rate, March 2008: 5.5% (currently 5.75%)
Inflation (CPI), March 2008: 2.2% (currently 2.1%)
Harriet Harman scrumminess factor (always): 100%

Other Stuff
BBC Sports Personality of the Year (09/12/07): Hamilton (should be Ricky Hatton).
Premier League (May 2008): Arsenal
FA Cup (17/05/07): Man Utd
Wimbledon to get promoted (May 2008): Of course
Sri Lanka vs England test series (ends Dec 07): Draw
New Zealand vs England test series (ends March 08): England win

Some of the political predictions may come unstuck pretty soon, and others could be spectacularly wrong. I'm assuming that no one is going to leave the Cabinet as a result of Donorgate because: a) no one's got the integrity to walk; b) Brown knows that if he sacks one of Hain, Alexander (although she's not actually a Cabinet member anyway) or The Divine Harriet then he'd have to sack the lot, and c) I don't think the CPS have got the balls to prosecute a minster of the Crown.

I'm still predicting a Labour majority at the next election, and this at a time when the Conservatives are 5/6 on. Meanwhile Livingstone is 2/1 on to win the Mayoralty.

The safest bet is Clegg to win the LD leadserhip contest in a fortnight's time.

The thinking behind predicting inflation to rise but the Base Rate to fall is that the fuel price will exert an upward pressure on prices, but the Bank of England will be concerned about a slowdown in the economy.

Hamilton is 7/4 on to win Sports Personality of the Year.

There remains my very first prediction, made some weeks ago, namely that fireworks will be banned (at least from private sale) within ten years.