League Cup - Semi-Final Draw - Prediction

Manchester United and Spurs will avoid each other.

The draw is on Saturday.

Sceptics might like to note that my forecast for an FA Cup draw last season was spot on.

In The Words Of Private Fraser...

You know what ? I think we’re heading for a Spring General Election. Brown is swinging into election mode. Several things are making me think it is so.

Firstly, the horrible spectacle of the G20 summit with Brown at the centre of it all had more than a whiff of spin about it, as does the package that he and his cohorts are concocting ahead of the Autumn Statement. That in itself is going to be billed as a big giveaway, a “Take The Money Now, Worry About The Fact That We're Completely Screwed Later” pre-Budget report which is going to leave us all in serious lumber in the years to come but may have the short term effect of making a few people (many of them in marginal constituencies, no doubt) feel a bit better off.

Next, Political Betting has an interesting article today suggesting that bringing back Mandelson and Campbell may prove to be a master stroke. There has undeniably been a change in the much-vaunted “media narrative” over the last couple of months, which is pretty remarkable given the depth of pooh this country now finds itself in, courtesy in no small measure to the policies of the Scottish Stalinist over the last ten years. Labour is closing the gap on the Tories, who seem completely incapable of offering an alternative analysis. If nothing else, this economic crisis has shown Cameron and Osborne to be cowardly lightweights - a dreadful combination – who have failed to put forward a realistic roadmap for getting us out of the mess.

And, as Ian Dale reflected this morning, Labour knows that their best chance may be to go to the polls before the recession really bites. And Brown knows that he doesn’t need to win the popular vote to win, or be close to, an overall majority. Go to Electoral Calculus, hit "Make your prediction" in the sidebar, and key in a prediction such as Con 37%, Lab 35%, Lib Dem 20% to see how close to an overall majority Brown could get even if the Tories gets more votes than he does. (The situation is even more outrageously unfair in England, where even in 2005 the Conservatives got more votes than Labour, only to have Blair wipe the floor with them in terms of Commons seats, not that I’ve got a problem with that or anything…Grrrr).

Finally, as the tax credits kick in, Spring is also likely to see the first visit to the UK of the new American President. So, a few photo-calls with Obama (who’ll still be in his honeymoon period) a bit of State-interventionist guff about new partnerships to create new opportunities, some toe-curlingly sycophantic write-ups from the liberal intelligentsia in the Press, and it’ll be “Hi-ho, it’s off to the Polls we go”.

And then, God knows what’ll happen. But for what it's worth, I stand by my prediction of a year ago; a Labour majority of 20 seats.







In other words, we're all doomed.

Glenrothes...

The Womble calls it for the SNP.

No real reason, other than that's what most of the political pundits think too....Interestingly, according to the utterly fab Political Betting, and the frightening geeky Politics Home, MPs at Westminster think that ZaNu Labour will hold on. It's those on (or nearer) the ground who seem to think that my favourite foreign political party will do the business.

God knows what that would do for the Brown bounce.

PS Apparently the picture is of a piece of Glenrothes architecture. Well, that'd make ME vote for change, for a start.

UPDATE- Ha ! shows what I know, dunnit ?!

Quick On The Draw

Trying to predict the outcome of a random draw is a pretty pointless exercise. Predicting the outcome of the FA Cup "draw", however, is a little more interesting.

As I write, there are four Premier League sides left in it, including Middlesbrough, who will replay against Sheffield United, and Portsmouth, currently drawing 0-0 with Preston with a quarter of an hour to go.

Ideally the FA would like to keep the lot of them apart, but that might look a bit suspicious. So if there are any Premier League ties, I reckon Manchester United will be protected with home advantage. Chelsea will probably get an easy away tie, for instance at Bristol Rovers or Barnsley.

One thing I'm absolutely confident about; Manchester United and Chelsea will be kept apart.

The Wrong Time And The Wrong Reason

Anyone who picked Peter Hain in their Fantasy Government Cabinet has just bagged the maximum of 50 points, for having someone who's cocked up so badly they've had to resign.

Actually, whilst I hate this government with a passion, I don't really see this as much of a cause for celebration. It sends out the wrong message. No one should have to resign from their job just because their behaviour has been referred to the Police.

You could argue, quite powerfully, that Hain should have resigned when the appalling management of his Deputy Leadership campaign fund first came to light, on the grounds of clear incompetence. Or you could argue that at some between then and now his position became untenable and that he should have resigned because the pressure has reached a tipping point. But resigning now implies that there is something inherently wrong with being under Police investigation. And there isn't. There's only something wrong with being found guilty by a court of law. It's a critical tenant of our legal system, and we should not rejoice when we see it being undermined.

Gordon Brown has handled this pretty badly in my view. He could and probably should have acted sooner. But there are reasons for people to lose their job, and the Boys in Blue wading in with their size 12s is not one of them.

Quite apart from which, it's another blow for the Womble On Tour Predictions List, which said that Hain would survive and that James Purnell would be the first to leave the Cabinet. I seem to have got that very precisely the wrong way round.

Still don't think there will be any high-profile prosecutions, though. Can't believe that the CPS has got what it takes to take on the Establishment.

Clegg On Dale's Face ?

If the readers of Political Betting know anything, the Lib-Dem leadership is a shoo-in for Nick Clegg.

Of those who've predicted the result, 92 have gone for Clegg, as opposed to just 30 for Chris Huhne. Amongst those who've gone for Clegg his average predicted vote-share seems to be around 55%, while those who think Huhne's going to win generally see it as being closer - hardly anyone's said that Huhne's going to get more the 55% of the vote. Not that I know anything about it, but I've gone for Clegg at 55.8% of the vote.

All this will come as a considerable blow to Iain Dale, who, in common with many other Tories, has been spinning against Clegg since the the contest started, almost to the point of embarrassment. The feeling is that Clegg, as someone who is on the right of the Lib Dems, will give Cameron less room for manoeuvre.

As far as I'm concerned, if a bloody Liberal Democrat is cramping the leader of the Conservative Party for space, that tells me all I need to know about whether I should be considering a return to my old voting habits.

100th Post - Prediction Time

I've been wondering how to commemorate this, my 100th post since I started blogging in August. In the end I decided to try my luck at some predictions. This being a mainly political blog it may take quite some time for any of them to be put to the test, but it's always interesting to be able to look back at what you thought might happen. In my 200th post (in early April, on current form) I'll have a look at those where there is a definite result and see how I feel about those that haven't yet been tested.

So, in no particular order, the first Womble On Tour Predictions List
Liberal Democrat Leadership winner (result declared 17/12/2007): Clegg
Next minister to leave the Cabinet: Purnell
Share of vote at English local elections in May 2008 (01/05/07): Con 38 Lab 31 LD 24 Others 7
Next Mayor of London (20/08/08): Johnson
Timing of next General Election: Autumn 2009
Party Leaders going into the next General Election: Brown, Cameron, Clegg
Winner of next General Election: Labour - majority of 20
US Presidential Election (Nov 08): Clinton
Bank of England Base Rate, March 2008: 5.5% (currently 5.75%)
Inflation (CPI), March 2008: 2.2% (currently 2.1%)
Harriet Harman scrumminess factor (always): 100%

Other Stuff
BBC Sports Personality of the Year (09/12/07): Hamilton (should be Ricky Hatton).
Premier League (May 2008): Arsenal
FA Cup (17/05/07): Man Utd
Wimbledon to get promoted (May 2008): Of course
Sri Lanka vs England test series (ends Dec 07): Draw
New Zealand vs England test series (ends March 08): England win

Some of the political predictions may come unstuck pretty soon, and others could be spectacularly wrong. I'm assuming that no one is going to leave the Cabinet as a result of Donorgate because: a) no one's got the integrity to walk; b) Brown knows that if he sacks one of Hain, Alexander (although she's not actually a Cabinet member anyway) or The Divine Harriet then he'd have to sack the lot, and c) I don't think the CPS have got the balls to prosecute a minster of the Crown.

I'm still predicting a Labour majority at the next election, and this at a time when the Conservatives are 5/6 on. Meanwhile Livingstone is 2/1 on to win the Mayoralty.

The safest bet is Clegg to win the LD leadserhip contest in a fortnight's time.

The thinking behind predicting inflation to rise but the Base Rate to fall is that the fuel price will exert an upward pressure on prices, but the Bank of England will be concerned about a slowdown in the economy.

Hamilton is 7/4 on to win Sports Personality of the Year.

There remains my very first prediction, made some weeks ago, namely that fireworks will be banned (at least from private sale) within ten years.

Banned By The State III - Fireworks

It's hardly worth blogging a "fireworks ban" story, because it is so obviously going to happen in a world run by Health and Safety Fascism. But seeing as I'm into the swing of it, I thought I would.

There will be no public display in the historic city of York this year because the costs of confirming to all the nonsensical safety rules.

In the old days they held a bonfire on the Knavesmire racecourse and no one ever got hurt as far as I know. That got the heave-ho on the grounds of (safety) costs. This year they were going to hold an event at York City football ground (known excruciatingly as "Kit Kat Crescent", but that's another story) but that's been refused a safety certificate.

You know where all this is leading, of course. Fewer and fewer public displays go ahead because of safety concerns. That means more family displays, in which more people get hurt. The statistics show an increase in firework-related injuries, and hey, presto, Our Beloved Rulers have an excuse to ban fireworks entirely.

Womble On Tour Prediction: fireworks will be banned (at least from private sale) within ten years.