Getting Irate So That You Don't Have To

Getting Irate So That You Don't Have To

Wednesday, 3 September 2008

Anyone For Suicide ?

Interesting piece here from the excellent Mike Smithson of Political Betting suggesting it might be in Labour's long-term interest to hold a General Election now.

The argument goes that so bad is Labour's predicament, and so bad is the short-term future for the economy, that Labour might be forgiven more quickly it it hands over the reigns of power to the Conservatives now rather than limp on with a spent Prime Minister and be associated with ever growing doom, gloom and despondency till 2010. Using this logic you could conclude that had John Major gone to the polls in say, 2005, the outcome, though a Tory defeat, would not have been as bad as it was in 1997; and it's probably right.

There isn't a chance of it happening of course. There is no way Brown has the guts to call an election now. Actually I'd be hard-pressed to think of any politician capable of taking such a long-term, self-sacrifical view.

One of two things will happen. Either Brown will soldier on, hoping for some sort of minor miracle (and perhaps even getting one - Cameron is not invincible, and things can change very quickly) or he'll be forced to stand aside for another leader. I'll be fascinated to watch what happens at the Labour Conference (and I don't think I've ever said that before !) to see the manoeuvring of those who aspire to the Labour leadership. My bet is that Brown will cling on, but by the ned of this month I think we'll have a better idea of who the runners and riders are for a leadership contest.

By the way, Political Betting is a fabulous site for those wanting a regular fix of political discussion. The articles are usually interesting, challenging and neutral, and the comments surprisingly free of partisan bickering or point-scoring.

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