In The Words Of Private Fraser...

You know what ? I think we’re heading for a Spring General Election. Brown is swinging into election mode. Several things are making me think it is so.

Firstly, the horrible spectacle of the G20 summit with Brown at the centre of it all had more than a whiff of spin about it, as does the package that he and his cohorts are concocting ahead of the Autumn Statement. That in itself is going to be billed as a big giveaway, a “Take The Money Now, Worry About The Fact That We're Completely Screwed Later” pre-Budget report which is going to leave us all in serious lumber in the years to come but may have the short term effect of making a few people (many of them in marginal constituencies, no doubt) feel a bit better off.

Next, Political Betting has an interesting article today suggesting that bringing back Mandelson and Campbell may prove to be a master stroke. There has undeniably been a change in the much-vaunted “media narrative” over the last couple of months, which is pretty remarkable given the depth of pooh this country now finds itself in, courtesy in no small measure to the policies of the Scottish Stalinist over the last ten years. Labour is closing the gap on the Tories, who seem completely incapable of offering an alternative analysis. If nothing else, this economic crisis has shown Cameron and Osborne to be cowardly lightweights - a dreadful combination – who have failed to put forward a realistic roadmap for getting us out of the mess.

And, as Ian Dale reflected this morning, Labour knows that their best chance may be to go to the polls before the recession really bites. And Brown knows that he doesn’t need to win the popular vote to win, or be close to, an overall majority. Go to Electoral Calculus, hit "Make your prediction" in the sidebar, and key in a prediction such as Con 37%, Lab 35%, Lib Dem 20% to see how close to an overall majority Brown could get even if the Tories gets more votes than he does. (The situation is even more outrageously unfair in England, where even in 2005 the Conservatives got more votes than Labour, only to have Blair wipe the floor with them in terms of Commons seats, not that I’ve got a problem with that or anything…Grrrr).

Finally, as the tax credits kick in, Spring is also likely to see the first visit to the UK of the new American President. So, a few photo-calls with Obama (who’ll still be in his honeymoon period) a bit of State-interventionist guff about new partnerships to create new opportunities, some toe-curlingly sycophantic write-ups from the liberal intelligentsia in the Press, and it’ll be “Hi-ho, it’s off to the Polls we go”.

And then, God knows what’ll happen. But for what it's worth, I stand by my prediction of a year ago; a Labour majority of 20 seats.







In other words, we're all doomed.